Picasso Cycle Update & More

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date. 

Picasso Dates, always +/- 
Aug 4-12 L  - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H  - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L  - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H  - High on 11/7
Nov 24-27L - Low was early on 11/15 and out of sync with the cycles 
Dec 3-9H
Dec 25L 
  
Now that we all had a great Thanksgiving feast,  it is timely to read about the "Santa Claus Rally" with comments by several sources

By Investopedia
What is a 'Santa Claus Rally'
A santa claus rally is a surge in the price of stocks that often occurs in the last week of December through the first two trading days in January. There are numerous explanations for the Santa Claus Rally phenomenon, including tax considerations, happiness around Wall Street, people investing their Christmas bonuses and the fact that the pessimists are usually on vacation this week.

BREAKING DOWN 'Santa Claus Rally'
Many consider the Santa Claus rally to be a result of people buying stocks in anticipation of the rise in stock prices during the month of January, otherwise known as the January effect.

By Wikipedia

A Santa Claus rally is a rise in stock prices in the month of December, generally seen over the final week of trading prior to the new year. The rally is generally attributed to anticipation of the January effect, an injection of additional funds into the market, and to additional trades which must, for accounting and tax reasons, be completed by the end of the year. Another reason for the rally may be fund managers "window dressing" their holdings with stocks that have performed well.

The Santa Claus rally is also known as the "December Effect" and was first recorded by Yale Hirsch in his Stock Traders Almanac in 1972.^[1]

By TheStreet.com
A "Santa Claus Rally" is when the stock market rallies during the month of December, usually, in the last week of the month. Sound familiar? You might be thinking of the January Effect, which presumably occurs when investors sell stocks in December only to buy them back in January for tax purposes. Confused yet?
At the end of the day, stock market rallies are attributable to the collective psychology of market participants. Some years, stock may post strong gains from December into January; other years, not so much.
Regardless, if you see stocks rallying in the week between Christmas and the New Year, people are going to call it a Santa Claus Rally.

Forbes
Oct 31, 2017 @ 11:54 PM 
Is A Santa Claus Rally Ahead? Here Are The Key Charts To Watch

Jesse Colombo , Contributor

Link to article      http://bit.ly/2n6maW8

Comments:

Long term indicators appear positive, so far and the ADL is still making new ATHs.   The LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-.   Well, we are now in this time frame and this is where we need to be careful and keep an eye on our indicators for any change in the trend.  
-Peter Eliades "Sign of the Bear" indicator, talked about on this Blog, gave another signal on October 15,2017.  There is a lag between the past signals and the change in trend from bull to bear.  See the weekly charts.
-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT cycles suggest a mid year low.  
-This also coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr 2018), and a high in the third year, (3rd yr 2019).  It is widely known that the mid-term years are the best years for the stock market.  (Keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time!)
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in. 


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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.