Sunday, December 10, 2017

charts: SPY 10day Hi-Lo & S&P500 daily



In both of the above charts it appears that the market may have some rough sledding ahead. 
It seems that the market may correct and or have some sideways chop.
This is happening just when the Picasso Cycles suggests that the market maybe in the window of a high.  See posts for the last Picasso Cycle Update.
A pullback at this time +/- may give way to some kind of short term OS or undervalued market which should be a base for a rally into the February/March2018 time frame.  After that, if it does happen, the Picasso Cycles still suggests a mid-year low.
After that......well, first lets take one day, one week, one month at a time.
Updates will be made as the market progresses.


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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date. 

Picasso Dates, always +/- 
Aug 4-12 L  - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H  - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L  - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H  - High on 11/7
Nov 24-27L - Low was early on 11/15 and out of sync with the cycles 
Dec 3-9H - High on Dec 4, so far
Dec 25L 
Jan 7H
  

Comments:

Long term indicators appear positive, so far and the ADL is still making new ATHs.   The LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-.   Well, we are now in this time frame and this is where we need to be careful and keep an eye on our indicators for any change in the trend. 
-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT cycles suggest a mid year low.  
-This also coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr is 2018), and a high in the third year, (3rd yr is 2019).  It is widely known that the mid-term years are the best years for the stock market.  (Keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time!)
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in. 


Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Escape Velocity for the Transports?

On Friday, March 4,2016 this blog posted data and information on the Escape Velocity as it was applied to the S&P500. 
The link to this post --->   http://bit.ly/2Aqm3ub

Excerpts from the above post is below.
Why?  Because the DJTransports just had 3 consecutive days of over a 1 1/2% gain each day.
Not sure if the Escape Velocity applies to the DJTransports, but, it has a lot of momentum regardless.

See for yourself...
Posted, Friday, March 4,2016
This post is about an article found on MarketWatch.com
The link to this article can be found at the bottom of this post.

"Historical pattern says the risk of a 2016 bear market is zero"
 By Simon Maierhofer
Published: Feb 25,2016  12:57p.m. ET

In physics, escape velocity is the minimum speed needed for an object to break free from the gravitational attraction of a massive body. What is the “escape velocity” needed for stocks to break their down trend?
Unlike in physics, there is no fail-proof formula for stocks. However, based on history, the S&P 500 just rallied strongly enough to end its down trend. How so?
Stock-market 'escape velocity'
On Feb. 12, 16 and 17, the S&P 500 gained more than 1.5% a day for three consecutive days. Since 1970, this has happened only eight other times. The table below lists each occurrence along with the daily consecutive gains, and the return a year after the last “kickoff” day.
The Index used in the data above was the S&P500 and NOT the DJTransports
 Observations by author

  • Every single time the S&P 500 gained more than 1.5% a day for three consecutive days, it traded higher a year later.
  • The S&P 500 violated the low set prior to the kickoff move only twice (1987, 2002). Both times it bounced back quickly.
  • In 2016, the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week low before its kickoff rally. In 1970, 1987 and 2011, the S&P 500 also closed at a 52-week just before soaring higher.
  • Obviously, kickoff rallies like this are not the only factor driving stocks, but this particular pattern confirms the six reasons for a stock market rally listed by the February 11 Profit Radar Report (all six reasons are available here).
  • The Feb. 11 Profit Radar Report recommended buying the S&P 500 at 1,828 (after it fell as low as 1,810) in anticipation of a sizeable rally.
  • As compelling as this historic pattern may be, tunnel vision is a luxury investors can't afford. It's worth noting that the 2016 kickoff is weaker (in terms of consecutive percentage gains) than prior kickoff rallies, and our major-market-top liquidity indicator raised a caution flag in May 2015.
  • The scope of this rally has yet to be revealed, and a break below the February low is still possible (like in 1987 and 2002).
  • Regardless of the S&P's near-term path, history says we shouldn't under estimate this kickoff rally. Acting on the sentiment-based buy signal at S&P 1,828 provided a low-risk entry point and insurance against a runaway rally.
Link to full article
 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/historic-pattern-says-the-risk-of-a-2016-bear-market-is-zero-2016-02-25

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

charts: SPY Weekly & Monthly

Courtesy of eSignal

Courtesy of eSignal
The top chart is the weekly SPY.  Note that this weeks price bar is above the top band.  Usually the price bar goes back below that point and trades within the bands.

The bottom chart is the monthly SPY with the Andrew's Pitch Fork.   This months price bar, circled in red, is now up against the lower trend line.  In the past you can see where these trend lines have been support and where they have been resistance.

Note that the Elliott Wave counts are not in stone.  They constantly change as price bars change.  They are only used as a suggestion of the wave count.  There are always alternate wave counts that should be considered.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sunday, November 26, 2017

ChaikinAnalytics.com on Dow30 Stocks & Sectors

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
"Chaikin Power Tools" App FREE for iPhone
Note that the app has not been updated yet for iOS 11

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Picasso Cycle Update & More

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date. 

Picasso Dates, always +/- 
Aug 4-12 L  - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H  - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L  - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H  - High on 11/7
Nov 24-27L - Low was early on 11/15 and out of sync with the cycles 
Dec 3-9H
Dec 25L 
  
Now that we all had a great Thanksgiving feast,  it is timely to read about the "Santa Claus Rally" with comments by several sources

By Investopedia
What is a 'Santa Claus Rally'
A santa claus rally is a surge in the price of stocks that often occurs in the last week of December through the first two trading days in January. There are numerous explanations for the Santa Claus Rally phenomenon, including tax considerations, happiness around Wall Street, people investing their Christmas bonuses and the fact that the pessimists are usually on vacation this week.

BREAKING DOWN 'Santa Claus Rally'
Many consider the Santa Claus rally to be a result of people buying stocks in anticipation of the rise in stock prices during the month of January, otherwise known as the January effect.

By Wikipedia
A Santa Claus rally is a rise in stock prices in the month of December, generally seen over the final week of trading prior to the new year. The rally is generally attributed to anticipation of the January effect, an injection of additional funds into the market, and to additional trades which must, for accounting and tax reasons, be completed by the end of the year. Another reason for the rally may be fund managers "window dressing" their holdings with stocks that have performed well.

The Santa Claus rally is also known as the "December Effect" and was first recorded by Yale Hirsch in his Stock Traders Almanac in 1972.[1]

By TheStreet.com
A "Santa Claus Rally" is when the stock market rallies during the month of December, usually, in the last week of the month. Sound familiar? You might be thinking of the January Effect, which presumably occurs when investors sell stocks in December only to buy them back in January for tax purposes. Confused yet?
At the end of the day, stock market rallies are attributable to the collective psychology of market participants. Some years, stock may post strong gains from December into January; other years, not so much.
Regardless, if you see stocks rallying in the week between Christmas and the New Year, people are going to call it a Santa Claus Rally.

Forbes
 
Is A Santa Claus Rally Ahead? Here Are The Key Charts To Watch


Comments:

Long term indicators appear positive, so far and the ADL is still making new ATHs.   The LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-.   Well, we are now in this time frame and this is where we need to be careful and keep an eye on our indicators for any change in the trend.  
-Peter Eliades "Sign of the Bear" indicator, talked about on this Blog, gave another signal on October 15,2017.  There is a lag between the past signals and the change in trend from bull to bear.  See the weekly charts.
-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT cycles suggest a mid year low.  
-This also coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr 2018), and a high in the third year, (3rd yr 2019).  It is widely known that the mid-term years are the best years for the stock market.  (Keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time!)
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in. 


Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monday, November 13, 2017

Charts for "Sign of the Bear"

The indicator, Sign of the Bear, by Peter Eliades may be very important, so the charts are being displayed below on all the dates from this indicator.
Note that Peter's signals are based on his specific Rules and only the following dates were a result of these Rules since 1929.

On Friday November 10,2017 Peter Eliades was on FBN
Peter has a stock market newsletter called StockMarket Cycles.  He was discussing an indicator he discovered in 1992 that he calls, Sign of the Bear.   In short, there have been 8 occurrences in the past 88 years. Subsequent to these dates the stock market has fallen as follows. 
 
July 19,1929           -89%       
December 8,1961   -29%       
January 25,1966     -26.5%       
October 17,1968     -36.9%
December 6,1972    -46.5%       
April 6,1998              -21%       
September 15,2000 -32%       
July 10, 2001           -27% 
 
Now, why is this important?  Because another signal just occurred on October 25,2017.
 
For each date mentioned above a daily and weekly chart are shown below.
 
 

There is a vertical line on each chart at the signal dates so you can see the price action that occurred in each year after the signal date.  The price pattern after each date is slightly different.
But one thing stood out.  The two signals that had the smallest losses were 1966 and 1998.   Interestingly both of these years were the second year of the four year Presidential cycle and next year, 2018, is also the second year of the four year Presidential cycle.
So if history repeats itself, we could expect about a 20% - 25% correction.
 
More charts to follow...
 
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results