Monday, April 2, 2018

charts: What is SMART Money Doing?




Click on the following link (or copy and paste it in the URL line) for the full article and charts
https://bit.ly/2GtC4Dp

The 'SMART' Money Is Dumping Stocks As BTFD Officially Ends

Professional money managers were leery about buying stocks during the recent rebound, judging from Bloomberg's Smart Money Flow Index, which tracks Dow Jones Industrial Average moves in the first and final 30 minutes of trading.

The thinking is that smart money will test the market and wait until the end of the day before committing to any large moves.
The last time SMART money and the market diverged this much did not end well for stocks...



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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

chart: Nasdaq

By Danny
LunaticTrader

Markets are going through another significant downswing. Volatility has been high compared to what traders got used to in 2017. This was of course inevitable, and it is something I was watching as an indication that we are getting into the late stages of a multi-year bear market. See: Updated long term scenarios and charts.
So, what's next? Here is the current Nasdaq chart:
Courtesy of LunaticTrader
 The long term blue trend line in Nasdaq is clearly broken. But the Nasdaq is still in a higher highs and higher lows sequence, so it's too early to declare the end of the bull market in this index.
The Earl (blue line) is turning up from a major low. The slower Earl2 (orange line) is still dropping fast, but well into bottom territory. The MoM indicator has fallen into the blue pessimistic zone (<-5), where major buying opportunities are usually found. Once the MoM turns back up we will have a nice setup to do some cautious buying here.
If major indexes drop below their February lows, then more bearish scenarios would gain traction. That wouldn't rule out new record highs later on, but it would probably push them further back in time. 
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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Friday, March 23, 2018

STIX stock market indicator

By   www.marketvolume.com

STIX indicator is the short-term index measuring the portion of the advancing stocks in the total number of the stocks listed in a market index. The STIX indicator is used in technical analysis to reveal overbought and oversold level on the market (when applied to Exchanges) and market sectors (when applied to market indexes).

Description
The STIX (Short Term Index) was first time mentioned by Picton Davies in his "The Polymetric Report Stix Record Book" in 1985. It is based on comparison of the number of advancing and declining stocks.

Traditionally, STIX based on the Exponential Moving Average with 21-bar period setting applied to the advance decline issues ratio and it oscillates in the range from 0 to 100. On our index charts you may have custom EMA applied to the Advance/decline ratio.

Technical Analysis, Signals and Trading Systems
In technical analysis the STIX index is used to determine the overbought and oversold condition on Exchanges and on market sectors covered by indexes. According to the "Polymetric Report" when EMA with 21-bar period setting is used
  • Most of the time the STIX indicator moves in the rage between 42 and 58;
  • When the STIX indicator drops below 42 level it could be an indication of oversold market and it could be used as a signal to buy (except it is ranging Bear Market);
  • The market is considered overbought when the STIX indicator raises above 56 (unless it is a new Bull Market);
  • The market is considered strongly overbought and a "Sell" signal could be generated when the STIX indicator moves above 58 level (again, unless it is a new Bull Market).
In general the STIX readings could be put into the following overbought/oversold table (bear in mind that this is for the STIX with 21 bar period setting):

Overbought / Oversold ConditionSTIX(21) Values
Extremely Overboughtgreater than 58
Fairly Overboughtgreater than 56
Fairly Oversoldless than 45
Extremely Oversoldless than 42

Comments by JustSignals 
At the close today, Friday March 23,2018, the STIX is "45"



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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.



Saturday, March 17, 2018

Update: Similarities 1929, 1987, 2018

Two posts have been made showing the similarities between 1929, 1987 & 2018.
They were posted on Feb. 21,2018 and March 5,2018.
Some similarities still appear in the DJIA daily charts as shown below.
A blue box highlights the TD (trading days) from the ATH to the lower high before the waterfall slide in 1929 & 1987.  A blue box also is included in the 2018 chart that displays a similar price pattern, so far.
After the blue box in 1929 & 1987 the previous lows were broken and this led to a very bearish pattern.  If the recent lows in 2018 get violated, watch out for a "possible" bearish price pattern.
This pattern has been playing out since Feb.21,2018 and should continue to be watched very carefully.
This is not a guarantee that it will occur again.
But it should be watched just in case.

 


Some similarities:
1- Since the ATH price trades below the moving average
2- The moving average has a negative slope
3- The histogram is negative
4- The TD in 1929 (28 TD) & 1987 (27 TD) are similar from the ATH to the lower high before the slide
5- The TD in 2018 is also very similar (30 TD)

* BUT, price in 2018 is still trading above the recent lows. 
Price MUST hold above the recent lows in order to invalidate a bearish scenario.

Watch this chart carefully.

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.


Wednesday, March 7, 2018

CandleSticks in recent charts


In addition to the SPY daily chart above, below is a month NYSE chart and a monthly DJTA chart.  Both suggest problems in the market.

Courtesy of Chris Kimble,  @KimbleCharting
Courtesy of Chris Kimble,  @KimbleCharting
Three very good charts to let you come to your own conclusions.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.




Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Goldman Warns...

Goldman Warns "A Corrective Process Has Begun" - Targets S&P 2,449

ZEROHEDGE

Link to full article and charts
http://bit.ly/2titdyh

The S&P 500 is rebounding miraculously off its 100-day moving-average in the face of global panic about President Trump's tariff proposals...

But Goldman Sachs' technical analysis team are worried and target a drop to 2,449 for the major US stock index.
The S&P started a corrective process at the late January highs


Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monday, March 5, 2018

Update: Similarities 1929, 1987, 2018

On February 21,2018 there is a post - charts: Similarities, 1929, 1987, 2018
Since the post on Feb 21st the 3 periods are still very similar.
Today the stock market rallied about 1.37% in the DJIA
So it required a look back at 1929 & 1987 to see if those periods experienced any big rally days from the ATH made and before the waterfall slide into the crash day.

Before reading the data below, it would be insightful to first take a look at the charts in the February 21st post.
If you need it, here is the link
https://justsignals.blogspot.com/2018/02/charts-similarities-1929-1987-2018.html

So, now look at the findings below.

1987
Between the high on 8/25/1987 and the lower high on 10/2/1987, before the water fall slide into the crash day, there were several big rally days just like the one we had today and some bigger.

8/31/87   +0.89%
9/10/87   +1.05%
9/11/87   +1.27%
9/22/87   +3.02% *To try and convince the Bulls that this is not a Bear market
9/28/87   +1.22%
10/1/87   +1.65% - The day before the lower high made on 10/2/87 and before the water fall slide into the crash day

After 10/2/87

10/13/87   +1.49%

Then:

10/14/87    -3.81%
10/15/87    -2.39%
10/16/87    -4.60%
10/19/87  -22.61%   Black Monday

1929
Between the high on 9/3/1929 and the lower high on 10/11/1929, before the water fall slide into the crash day, there were several big rally days just like the one we had today and some bigger.

9/6/29      +1.76%
9/11/29    +0.98%
9/16/29    +1.50%
9/26/29    +0.94%
10/7/29    +6.30% *To try and convince the Bulls that this is not a Bear market
10/10/29  +1.79% - The day before the lower high made on 10/2/87 and before the water fall slide

After 10/11/29

10/17/29   +1.73%
10/22/29   +1.75%

Then:

10/23/29   -6.31%
10/24/29   -2.09% Black Thursday with big intra-day low
10/25/29   +0.57%
10/28/29  -13.48%
10/29/29  -11.70% Black Tuesday

Comments
8/25/87 to 10/2/87 is 27 TD (trading days)
9/3/29 to 10/11/29 is 28 TD

"IF" 2018 is similar to 1929 & 1987, and it may be and it may not be, then 28 TD from the ATH on 1/26/2018 is 3/8/2018.   This date would represent "the lower high before the water fall slide into the crash day".   So 3/8/2018 would compare to 10/2/1987 & 10/11/1929, "IF" and only "IF" the 2018  pattern continues to be similar to 1929 & 1987.

1-It may continue to be similar
2-It may only be a shallow correction and not a crash
3-It may stop it's similarity and do something else

Keep an eye on it!

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.