Short Term Update

Short Term - the following has been suggested for many weeks in this blog
June 18-19 - poss top - high occurred on June 18th 

June 26 - possible low - Low so far occurred on June 29th - Note that this blog recently wrote "It is possible that Friday's volatility "might" carryover to Monday.  Monday's on many occasions have inherited Friday's volatility.", and this happened again today.

June 30 to July 8 & may be to July 13  - cycles suggest a potential consolidation period with a possible bias to the upside.

July 23-29 - possible low


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Short Term Update

Today on Twitter there was a chart by SeeItMarket.com on the 7th year of the Presidential cycle (this occurs when a President serves two terms).  In addition, their link takes you to an article which included another chart on the 3rd year of the Presidential cycle.  Both the 7th year and the 3rd year of the Presidential cycles fall in this year, 2015.
Here are those charts.

courtesy of SeeItMarket.com

Both of these charts show a rough several months just ahead before a year end rally.  Of course, both of these charts are the "averages" of several 3rd and 7th years.

Now to take a look at the short term and intermediate term cycles.  Both suggest some volatility in the months ahead much like the two charts above suggest. 

Short Term - the following has been suggested for many weeks in this blog, but, it also is similar to the 3rd year Presidential chart above 
June 19 - possible high
June 26 - possible low
June 26 to July 8-13  - cycles suggest a potential consolidation period
July 29 - possible low

Intermediate Term - The following is also similar to the 7 year Presidential chart above
June, July, August - high
September, October - low

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Short Term Update

After the cycles suggested an move up into June 10th the forecast was for some consolidation or pullback into June 11-12 +/-, which came as forecast.

It is possible that today's volatility "might" carryover to Monday.
Monday's on many occasions have inherited Friday's volatility. 

ZACKS on Monday Volatility
Monday volatility captures most observers' votes, as it follows two days of market inactivity. Many corporations make earnings and operations announcements after the Friday market close to mitigate the stock price effects of major public or shareholder information. The two-day inactivity period, regardless of major announcements, alone also contributes to increased investor activity, generating more volatility and trades. Weekend announcements of earnings, executive changes, mergers and acquisitions further increase volatility and activity.

JustSignals comments
Another observation has been that the market direction for the rest of the week, sometimes, has been in the opposite direction as that weeks Monday.  So, if Monday opens down or is down for the day, then one "might" expect the market to move up by the end of the week.  One explanation for this is that after a weak Friday weak hands are selling on Monday while the strong hands are buying and then take the market higher by then end of the week.

This scenario would fall in line with the current short term cycles view for some more upside into June 18-19 +/-.
  
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AAII Bullish %

Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD. and writer of the market newsletter, UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE,  once wrote that the stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25.

Recent dates when the AAII Bullish % was less than 25.00
June 9,2011    24.40  - Sell off into Aug 2011 before continuing higher
May 16,2012  23.60  - Market continued higher
July 18,2012   22.20  - Market continued higher
April 10,2013 19.30  - Market continued higher
June 10,2015  20.00  - ???

JustSignals posts for the intermediate cycles have been suggesting:
The intermediate forecast is for a top either on May 21+/- and or June 18-19+/- with a potential correction into July 29+/-.  The cycles then forecast a rally into November and or January.

So, similar action subsequent to June 9,2011 is a good possibility at this point based on the suggestions of the intermediate cycles and Aubie Baltin's interpretation of the AAII Bullish %.

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Short Term Update

Excerpts from original post on June 3,2015   

Today's comments, June 10th,  are in BLUE

The cycles have been performing well, but, what do they expect between today, June 3rd, and June 18-19? 

Today's Comments June 3rd
Today the cycles are suggesting some grinding up into June 10 +/-.
Although the short term cycles did not get closer to the June 3 +/- forecasted bottom, the market did bottom a few trading days later on June 9th.   The originally forecast grinding up from June 3 +/- ended up being a one day thrust up, catch up,  into the June 10th forecast date today.
Then some consolidation or pullback into June 11-12 +/- with the market trying to add some more to the upside into June 18-19 +/-.



June 18-19   poss top - From here the cycles suggest a bias up into June 18-19+/-.  Since June 19th is a Friday it may include Monday June 22nd so watch your indicators for evidence of a trend change.

July 29   poss low - more on this as we approach June 18-19


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Intermediate Term Update

Originally posted on
Friday, April 24, 2015

The intermediate forecast is for a top either on May 21+/- and or June 18-19+/- with a potential correction into July 29+/-.  The cycles then forecast a rally into November and or January.
Keep checking for further updates.

June 9,2015 Comments
So far this has been the case for the intermediate term.  The short term cycles missed the June 3 +/- low.  That forecast low did carryover several days.  The cycles are still suggesting some upside into June 18-19 +/-.  As always, watch your indicators for evidence of a trend change and JustSignals for more updates.



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Forecast Update

The cycles have been performing well, but, what do they expect between today, June 3rd, and June 18-19?

Today's Comments
Today the cycles are suggesting some grinding up into June 10 +/-.
Then some consolidation or pullback into June 11-12 +/- with the market trying to add some more to the upside into June 18-19 +/-.

May 21   poss top - This came right on time as forecasted.

June 2-3   poss  low - In the first 30min of trading on the morning of June 2 the market bottomed in our forecast window of June 2-3. 

June 18-19   poss top - From here the cycles suggest a bias up into June 18-19+/-.  Since June 19th is a Friday it may include Monday June 22nd so watch your indicators for evidence of a trend change. 

July 29   poss low - more on this as we approach June 18-19


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Forecast Update

From April 24,2015 post

DJIA
Cycles look like a consolidation period into May 21 with a slight bias to the upside, no real short term directions suggested by the cycles although some may develop along the way.

May 21   poss top - This came right on time as forecasted

June 2-3   poss  low - In the first 30min after the market opened yesterday morning this was posted, "Watch short term indicators to confirm this potential low".   As of this writing the futures are up, so the market probably bottomed early yesterday morning and in our forecast window, so far, of June 2-3.

June 18-19   poss top - From here the cycles suggest a bias up into June 18-19+/-.  Since June 19th is a Friday it may include Monday June 22nd so watch your indicators for evidence of a trend change.
 
July 29   poss low - more as we approach June 18-19

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Short Term Update

From April 24,2015

DJIA
Cycles look like a consolidation period into May 21 with a slight bias to the upside, no real short term directions suggested by the cycles although some may develop along the way.

May 21   poss top - This came right on time as forecasted

June 2-3   poss  low - Watch short term indicators to confirm this potential low

June 18-19   poss top
July 29   poss low

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Today's open

This is a screen shot of the 4min SPY for May 28, 29 & todays open.
Notice the increasing number of red lines going down as the market opened up.
This was a good indication that the open was being sold into.
Lets see what happens the rest of the day.

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Dow30 relative strength

This is the relative strength of the Dow30 stocks by three sources.  The top stocks by each source is highlighted in green. 
If this is becomes a popular item on this blog it will be posted weekly.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results