Friday, April 24, 2015

DJIA cycle dates to watch

DJIA
Cycles look like a consolidation period into May 21 with a slight bias to the upside, no real short term directions suggested by the cycles although some may develop along the way.
May 21   poss top
June 2-3   poss  low
June 18-19   poss top
July 29   poss low

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Short Term Forecast

Review of the last Short Term Forecast Dates Made March 22nd
- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)
*) March 19-25
1) March 29 to April 3
2) April 5-7
3) April 12-13

COMMENTS
March 19 to 25 -DJIA topped on March 23rd
March 29 to April 3 - DJIA topped on March 30th and bottomed on April 1st - a tricky one
April 5 to 7 - DJIA stalled on April 6th
April 12 to 13 - DJIA at the time of this writing topped on April 13th
 
Following cycles has been good to use as a guide or as a potential future road map, but, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast trend change date.  
 
NEW SHORT TERM FORECAST DATES
- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)
The forecast dates from this week to the 2nd or 3rd week of May are not easy to interpret.
More time is needed to evaluate this time period due to what is perceive to be many cross currents and a possible sideways consolidation period.
More on this to be posted in a few days.


Since cycles do not distinguish between trading days and calendar days, the cycle dates may come out on Holidays or weekends.  So the dates suggested that do fall on such days are to be used as a window.   So, as always, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast cycle trends.  All forecast dates will still be noted with a "+/-" because the cycle dates are not always as perfect as we would like them to be.  Although they have been pretty accurate.   

Intermediate Term Forecast Trend Change Dates

Intermediate term
The following was posted on March 22nd - 
"at this time the Short Term Cycles and the Intermediate Term Cycles are not in sync. The Intermediate term cycles suggest that the DJIA maybe turning up in the February/March time frame into mid 2015 +/-.
After reviewing the short term cycles, it is likely that the DJIA may drop into late March or early April" 
After an early February bottom the DJIA grinded with a bullish bias with small pullbacks in late March and early April as forecast.
From here the Intermediate cycles still call for some more bullish bias into mid 2015 +/- and that could mean +/- a month or so.
 
*** Indicators and oscillators must be watched for moves in the market because we are at a time where sentiment is optimistic and dumb money is buying and smart money is selling.  
In the past this combination has been a catalyst for a correction.  
 
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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 
Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

A hint from the VIX


This is a chart of the daily VIX courtesy of eSignal. 
Since October 2014 we have had declining tops as indicated by the trend line.
When a break of this trend line occurs and drop in the stock market occurs.
The amount of the drop is hard to forecast.
So keep an eye on this one !

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 
Past performance is not indicative of future results