Wednesday, April 26, 2017

chart: Valuations since 1900

Courtesy of dshort.com
Today's stock market valuations are now the second highest in 117 years.
Are we at the top?  There are indicators that say we are close but we are not there yet.  One of those indicators is the Advance Decline Line (ADL) which has been making new highs.  Usually the ADL will form a top about 3-6 months earlier than the stock market.  That has not happened yet.  So keep watching it carefully. 
Another indicator is the Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT).  The ZBT last happened in November 2016.  The ZBT has a history of making "average gains" of 24.6% over an "average" of 11 months from the last ZBT.  That would bring us to approximately October 2017.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Sunday, April 23, 2017

AdvanceDeclineLine, Predictor

"The ADL made a new high.  Our data goes back to 1926.  From 1926 to the present, over 90 years, we've never had a top in the ADL at a price top that was the ATH (all time high) in the market.  It could correct after that, but, the eventual high in the market will come at a lower (high in the ) ADL.  That is the reality of the stock market."  -  Richard Mogey

About Richard Mogey:
Richard Mogey, one of the world’s foremost authorities on cycles, has been studying cyclic activity in disciplines from natural phenomena to financial markets. He is a direct heir to the philosophy of Edward R. Dewey who founded the Foundation for the Study of Cycles.
From 1988 to 1997 Mr. Mogey was the Research Director, Executive Director, Chief Financial Officer, and Chief Economist for the “Foundation for the Study of Cycles, Inc.”, an international nonprofit research organization. He was the chief statistician and economist at the Foundation from 1989 to 1997. He created and co-authored two magazines for investors, Business and Investment Cycles and Cycles Projections, and was responsible for the editorial content of the popular journal, Cycles Magazine. He has co-developed the Foundation’s cycle analysis software, Techsignal.
From 2005 to 2010, Mr. Mogey was the Chief Voluntary Officer and Research Director of the Foundation in helping lead the Foundation into the 21st Century.
From 1997 after his retirement from the Foundation he served as chief economist for Iris Financial Group in Portland, Oregon.
In 2004 he rejoined the Foundation as Director of Research and Chief Economist, and remained in that position until 2010.
He has lectured at the University of Virginia and Temple University’s Business Schools on economics and the business cycle.  He has spoken widely and has presented papers at economic conferences world wide including the Russian Academy of Sciences. He is an experienced computer programmer with an extensive background in statistics.
He has a BA in Philosophy and Classics, Magna cum Laude, from the University of California at Irvine.
For Additional Information Contact: 
Camirand Mogey & Fife Investment Advisors
Westlake, OH  44145
440-471-7905

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results



Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date. 

Picasso Dates, always +/- 
Mar 3-14 H - high occurred on Mar 15th
Mar 20-28 L - possible low occurring in this time frame - Low occurred on March 27th
Apr 10-13 H (+/-) - high occurred on April 5th & later on Apr 10th
Apr 4/21-24 L (+/-)
Apr 28- May8 H

Comments
See new comments in blue above and below.

Long term indicators appear positive, so far.  Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside.  So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, the LT cycles appear to have shifted.  The LT cycles now suggest a high around April-June +/-, a low in August +/- & a high in November +/-. 
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Sy Harding's STS

Since Thursday is April 20,2017,  it is timely to post it again.

Excerpts from "Beat the Market the Easy Way" by Sy Harding
"Sell in May and Go Away"
"Ned Davis Research Inc. published numerous studies showing the positive  historical results of being invested in the markets for the seven month period of October 1 to May 1, and being in cash the other five months."
"Thus an investor standing aside during the market's unfavorable seasons not only matched the buy and hold performance of the S&P 500 and did so with only 50% of market risk, but also avoided the emotional stress  of seeing portfolios often plunge precipitously during unfavorable seasons."

  "IT IS NOT A FIXED 6-MONTHS IN, 6-MONTHS OUT!"

It is BEST to read this book.  The book is available at many libraries, either in paper or digital versions or it can be purchased easily online.

In summary, after the research made by Ned Davis Research Inc., Yale Hirsch of the Hirsch Organization and Alan Newman, editor of the Crosscurrents newsletter, Sy Harding's firm, Asset Management Research Corp. conducted more detailed research.  In their research they found that when the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), developed by Gerald Appel, was applied, the performance was much better.
"It works this way in our (Sy Harding's) seasonal strategy."
"If MACD is on a technical buy signal, indicating a rally is underway, when the October 16 earliest calendar date for seasonal entry arrives, we will enter at that time."
"However, if the MACD indicator is on a sell signal when the October 16 calendar date arrives, indicating a market decline is underway it would not make sense to enter before that decline ends, even though the average best calendar entry date has arrived.  In that event, our (Sy Harding's) Seasonal Timing Strategy simply waits to enter until MACD gives it's next buy signal, indicting that the decline has ended."
Use the same method in reverse when April 20 arrives to better pinpoint the end of the markets favorable period in the Spring.

Please take the time to read Sy Harding's book.  It is relatively short and easy to read and it has many more exciting findings by Sy Harding.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. 
Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday, April 13, 2017

Transports telling us someting?

Courtesy of KimbleCharting
Click on this chart to enlarge.
It is self explanatory.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Sunday, April 9, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date. 

Picasso Dates, always +/- 
Mar 3-14 H - high occurred on Mar 15th
Mar 20-28 L - possible low occurring in this time frame - Low occurred on March 27th
Apr 10-13 H (+/-)
Apr 4/21-24 L (+/-)

Comments
See new comments in blue above and below.

Long term indicators appear positive, so far.  Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside.  So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, the LT cycles appear to have shifted.  The LT cycles now suggest a high around April-June +/-, a low in August +/- & a high in November +/-. 
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date. 

Picasso Dates, always +/- 
Mar 3-14 H - high occurred on Mar 15th
Mar 20-28 L - possible low occurring in this time frame - Low occurred on March 27th
Apr 13 H (+/-)

Comments
See comments in blue above.

Long term indicators appear positive, so far.  Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside.  So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, LT cycles suggest a high around April +/-, low August +/- & high November +/-.  Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results